8am Update On Hurricane Nate

Hurricane Nate continues racing off to the NW at 22mph. At his current speed he will make landfall sometime before midnight tonight. Below is the current forecast track from the NHC

Nate has a few more hours to strengthen further before landfall . Currently , its still an asymmetrical storm with the strongest winds to the east of the center. Most models keep nate as a strong cat 1 hurricane although a few do tske him to cat 2 strength .

Nate will have big impacts once he moves inland . Winds will be strong enough to bring down trees and power lines across Alabama and Georgia. Here are the current watches and warnings

We will have frequent updates throughout the day

Harvey 2.0 Where Will He Go ?????

What was once a dead tropical system is now Harvey with a pulse!!! We have been watching over the last week as some models showed Harvey regaining life over the Bay of Campeche and sure enough that has been the end result . Harvey has been in a bit of a fight with the upper level low to its NW . However that low is finally staring to erode away which should help improve conditions for the development of Harvey . I circled the upper level low in the image below

As conditions improve Harvey will begin to become better organized and further strengthening is expected. Harvey currently has a large area of broad rotation. How soon the center of circulation can tighten up will be the determining factor as to how strong Harvey can actually become. Current projections suggest that a cat 1 or cat 2 is certainly possible with an outside chance of an even stronger system.

From here the big question that everyone wants to know is ” where does Harvey go from here. It’s a very complicated question that has many possible answers. One possible scenario is that Harvey makes landfall this weekend along the Texas coast and gets trapped in between a ridge to its NW and east forcing it on a more S/SW path ultimately raining itself out over northern Mexico. I highlighted the two ridges below

Another possible solution is that a trough digging down into the eastern US will pull Harvey to the NE into the southeastern US as shown by the Euro

Regardless of the ultimate track, Harvey has the potential to bring flooding rains to the coast of Texas . Some forecast models are suggesting over 20 inches of rain

Still a lot of questions remain over the coming days . How strong will Harvey become? Will he stall out or will he eventually move NE into the southeast ? For now ,we wait and watch the latest developments. We will have frequent updates over the coming days

Flooding Tropical Rains

Tropical storm Cindy is getting ready to make landfall along the upper Texas coast later on tonight. Some places along the gulf coast have already received over 8 inches of rain . The heavy rain is starting to move inland across central Mississippi and Alabama this morning. Look at the stream of moisture heading north out of the gulf

There is a high flood threat over parts of Mississippi and Alabama today . Rainfall amounts will range from 2-6 inches across the above mentioned areas.

Along with the flood threat comes the threat of brief spin up tornadoes across the gulf coast. This threat will move inland tomorrow across parts of the southeast .

We will continue watching Cindy and the heavy rain threat over the next few days. We will post updates as needed

Tropical Rains Ahead

Our tropical system in the gulf still hasn’t reached tropical storm category yet. To be honest , it’s irrelevant if it receives a name or not . The biggest threat from this system has been and will continue to be flooding. We currently have a stalled front that’s laying across the southeast. This front will actually help keep the deep moisture confined to south today along the gulf coast. I drew a blue line to represent the front

It won’t be until the front starts moving that the deep tropical moisture will be allowed to move to the north. The front should slowly start the northward movement early tomorrow. It appears the system will make landfall around the Texas/ Louisiana state line late tomorrow night or early Thursday morning .

Areas to the east of the center will experience very heavy rain. It’s not going to rain constantly but several rounds of heavy rain are possible. Many locations in the southeast have received copious amounts of rain over the last few weeks. With an additional 3-5 inches possible in the coming days flooding is a big concern

Along with the flooding threat there will be a small tornado threat across Mississippi,Alabama and western Georgia Thursday. A brief spin up tornado will be possible across the above mentioned areas . Inland winds will not be a huge issue across Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia , Tennessee and the Carolinas. However there could be some brief gusty winds associated with any thunderstorms.

The system will slowly move to the NE on Friday and Saturday and will become absorbed by the incoming front. This will keep rain chances fairly high through Sunday across a large part of the southeast.

The big message this morning is heavy rain is likely at times across the southeast over the next 3-5 days. We will have frequent updates along the way

Watching The Gulf

By now the secrets out of the bag, there is a system deep in the Gulf of Mexico that has a chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next 96 hours. There are many things that need to be stressed . The first is , this is not likely to become a hurricane. Upper level winds racing from SW to NE across the central gulf providing high shear so the environment is not one that favors rappid development. Secondly , the ultimate track of the system isn’t the end all be all for rain across the southeast. There will be a large moisture plume to the east of the center that will move NE out of the gulf increasing rain chances pretty much region wide over the coming 4 days. So don’t pay too much attention to the track and the fancy track maps showing the possible outcomes.

Flooding is going to be a big concern as many areas across the southeast have received a lot of rain over the last few weeks. Inland winds should not be a big a issue outside of any possible thunderstorms related to the potential tropical system.

There are still many questions moving forward and we will have many updates in the coming days.

Fighting Through The Storm

On May 9th 2017 Perry Williams lost his battle with cancer. It was a courageous fight that inspired many and one that will not soon be forgotten. This past year was hard on Perry but he didn’t let that stop him or slow him down.

Perry had a passion for weather that was second to none.  As he described it in one of his blog posts it started many many years ago when he would read weather related  articles , study weather history and just spend time at the national weather service in Atlanta . Perry had a strong passion for hurricanes and tornadoes and as many would say he was a ” human weather encyclopedia “. He chased his first hurricane in 1979 and saw his first tornado just a few years later. Perry was always looking out for his friends , family and community when threatening weather was approaching.

 

Perry was diagnosed with a high grade sarcoma in his left leg and in 2015 his left leg had to be amputated.  The outlook was promising and Perry embraced his new life with open arms and a full heart. Unfortunately in September of 2016 the cancer returned and spread throughout his body. However , during this time Perry was fighting like crazy . He was determined to ” kick cancers butt ” . He embraced the battle daily and continued to show his love for life and for people.

Perry fought when he could have given up. Perry was courageous and inspired us all. He was loved by so many and that was evident when a gofund me page was started to raise money to get perry transported from Atlanta to Washington State so he could be surrounded by family. Hundreds of people donated even complete strangers and more than 15 thousand dollars was raised. Last month Perry was transported by ambulance from Atlanta to Washington State. The overwhelming joy he had when he got there was clear from all of his facebook posts . He was especially happy and grateful to be close to his sister again

Perry will be missed by many but make no mistake about it, his legacy will live on. He impacted so many lives and was an encouragement to all of us . Thank you Perry, thank you for teaching us all an important lesson in life. To love others, respect others and to help others. Thank you for being courageous and fighting everyday to inspire so many . We are so thankful that you got to spend your last few days on earth with your loving family and we know you were surronded by love. While your storm on earth is now over rest assured it will not be forgotten.

Remembering April 27th 2011

Today marks the 6 year anniversary of the historic super outbreak on April 27th 2011 . A day that forever changed thousands of people . A day when 218 tornadoes were recorded setting the record for most tornadoes in a single day . Deaths were reported in Mississippi, Alabama , Tennessee, Georgia and Virgina .  317 people were killed on April 27th 2011 making it the single deadliest tornado related day since 1925, 243 of those deaths occurred in Alabama alone . Destruction was spread far and wide and to this day the landscape across the southeast remains scarred from that day.

There were stories of heartache , stories of heroism and stories of complete strangers giving the clothes off their backs to people who lost everything . Communities pulled together in the days and weeks following the outbreak . Volunteers gathered by the thousands to help in the aftermath.

There were so many incredible survival stories across the southeast that day. Some families were completely  trapped after their house crumbled ontop of them. Survivors were being pulled from the rubble hours and hours after the storms passed . For me personally I remember grabbing my wife , a few sofa cushions , the dogs and running into the bathroom to cover take cover . We were lucky as the tornado passed a quarter mile south of our house but I will never forget the sounds from outside as we could hear the tornado and hear debris pelting our roof. We were very lucky , others were not.

April 27th 2011 is Day the Southeast will never forget . The experts say we won’t see another outbreak of that magnitude in our lifetime.  Regardless , its important to remember as we look back on this day that it does not take an EF4 or EF5 tornado to cause death and destruction. In the last 6 years society has become complacent to severe weather threats as they are sometimes described as ” not as bad as April 27th 2011″ . Please remember that all severe weather threats are dangerous. Don’t ignore a warning because it’s ” just a severe thunderstorm warning”  Severe thunderstorms kill people every single year . Don’t become complacent to a ” slight risk ” of a ” brief ” tornado as that brief tornado regardless of strength could end up being your April 27th 2011. Have a safety plan , PRACTICE your safety plan and make sure everyone in your household knows what to do and where to go.

We’ve learned a lot in the years since April 27th 2011. We’ve learned from tragedy, we’ve learned from mistakes and we’ve learned from each other.  It’s important that we keep learning from that day , it’s important that we keep moving forward and it’s extremely important that we always stop to reflect about the events of that day . Buts it’s just as important not to fear the next storm and to make sure your plan is in place in case one day you experience your own April 27th.

 

Severe Weather Threat April 26th-27th Noon Update

A fairly high severe weather threat today and tonight especially across Arkansas , Louisiana and Mississippi.  That is where the best severe weather ingredients will be . Currently we have ongoing severe storms in western Arkansas

This is where the highest tornado risk will be today. Southern Arkansas looks to be the hotspot in regards to the greatest tornado risk . The storm prediction center upgraded southern Arkansas to a moderate risk and also expanded the slight risk a little further east extending into Alabama

The general thinking is a few supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will form in that general area before forming into a long squal line. The threat later tonight becomes more of a large hail and damaging wind threat for Mississippi and Alabama. The tornado threat isn’t zero in those areas but it’s much lower vs areas off to the west where the best cape values are. Instability remains a question mark for Mississippi and Alabama . Most guidance brings cape values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range for Mississippi and Alabama. If those values are underdone, the risk could go up a little .

Bottom line is , there is an increasing severe weather threat for the western parts of the southeast today and tonight . The threat slides east tonight and by tomorrow the severe threat drops off greatly

 

 

 

 

April 27th 2011 Red Cross Fundraiser

rnado outbreak on April 27th , 2011 impacted so many people across the southeast. Homes were destroyed, people were killed and many towns and communities were changed forever. The American Red Cross stepped in right away providing food, shelter and clothing for that thousands of families impacted .

In honor of those impacted and in honor of the American Red Cross , Southernwx.com wants to raise as much money as possible over the next 7 days for the American Red Cross Tornado Relief Fund. 100 percent of the proceeds will go directly to that fund. We are selling an April 27th 2011 remembrance shirt for $20 and shipping is free. We want as many people as possible to participate so if you can’t purchase a shirt or make a donation to the Red Cross please participate by sharing this link . Below is an image of what the shirt will look like

Thank you you so much for participating in this fundraiser over the next 7 days. Please visit the Southernwx store by following the link at the top of the page

 

 

Weekend Rain

It’s been a warm week across the southeast this week and that looks to continue through tomorrow . Temperatures in many locations are running 5-10 degrees above normal . But, brief Relief  is on the way.

An approaching front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms to western parts of the southeast tonight and tomorrow . While the severe weather threat isn’t zero it remains fairly low with the greatest risks coming over central Mississippi in the form of large hail and damaging winds . As the system slides to the east on Saturday night it will slow down and attempt to cutoff from the main flow . This will bring enhanced rain chances to the Carolinas . This is very welcomed news as many places remain well below the average rain totals for this time of year. The system slides east late Sunday into Monday morning bringing much cooler air to the southeast. Here is the 00z Euro modeled rainfall output for the Carolinas. We believe this is overdone but it gives you an idea as to where the heaviest rain could be this weekend.  Image from wxbell.com

After this system passes and the brief cool down on Monday we warm up again later next week and will be watching yet another system approaching from the west as we head into next weekend