An active and dangerous weather day is less than 24 hours away for a large portion of the southeast including Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia and the Carolinas. There are still many questions regarding tomorrow’s threat many of which cannot be answered until tomorrow morning at the earliest . Early today SPC released its updated day 2 outlook and it expanded the enhanced risks and the moderate risks. There are some high probabilities within this outlook as well
The moderate risk is very expansive and the Storm Prediction Center even hinted that they might have to upgrade areas further north towards Tennessee. Based on everything we’ve looked at this afternoon it appears they will most likely pull the moderate risk even further to the west and northwest sometime tonight . We also believe that tomorrow there will no doubt be a high risk issued especially around from SE Alabama to SW Georgia area.
Models today kept inching higher severe parameters further west to include parts of western Alabama . They are also starting to show development a little further west towards the Mississippi / Alabama border . Below is the 3k 18z NAM showing individual cells forming along the dry line
If early development occurs, the risk for a larger threat area increases as well. If it’s later development , the storms might not get cranking until central or eastern Alabama. So as I said before there are still many questions.
We will have a round of showers and storms early tomorrow morning between 4-8 am thanks to the warm front lifting north from the gulf coast . There is the threat some of these could be severe as well with large hail and damaging winds. But it’s the afternoon storms that we are most worried about. Once the warm front lifts north the atmosphere will become a powder keg . Here is the projected cape values tomorrow afternoon
Add to that extremely high dew points and high helicity values and the atmosphere would be primed for rotating storms capable of producing large tornadoes.
This is a very serious weather situation and you should prepare for it no later than tonight. Make sure you review your Severe Weather safety plan. Make sure you have a NOAA weather radio or a reliable way to recieve warning information . Make sure you have flashlights and batteries as well.
There is no reason to panic, we deal with severe weather outbreaks every year in the Deep South. But please know your course of action if you should be placed under a severe thunderstorm warning or a tornado warning . Not everyone will be impacted by severe storms tomorrow . But the risk is high and it’s better to be safe than sorry . Look for more updates here on the blog or you can follow the latest at Southernwx.com , Southernwx on facebook and @southern_wx on Twitter .