As we mentioned yesterday , tomorrow is shaping up to be a very significant severe weather day across the southeast . It’s a day where you will want to pay attention to the weather and have a severe weather safety plan in place . This is not a time to panic, its a time to prepare.
The storm prediction center has ramped up its outlook to now include a large enhanced area along with a large moderate area. Depending on mesoscale features which won’t be figured out tomorrow I would not be surprised to see them post a rare high risk for portions of the southeast sometime tomorrow . Below is the day 2 outlook which includes a 30 percent hatched area and a 45 percent hatched area
A 45 percent hatch means that you have a 45 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your home. It’s a significant risk and one that should be taken seriously.
A warm front will be racing NE from the gulf coast early tomorrow morning bringing showers and thunderstorms with it . These storms , the ” first round” will pack a punch with large hail and damaging straight line winds. There will be a tornado threat with the morning storms as well but the greatest threat will come tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough digs into the region.
The atmosphere tomorrow afternoon is going to be very volatile. Cape values could approach 4,000 j/kg , add to that wind profiles that support supercell thunderstorms and you have all the ingredients for a dangerous weather day tomorrow into tomorrow night across Alabama ,Georgia and into the Carolinas. The second round of storms will come along and ahead of the approaching cold front from the west . Timing of this front will have big implications. A faster moving front would help to slightly reduce the severe threat across Alabama and western Georgia by not giving the storms a lot of time to develop . A slower moving front would allow for greater thunderstorm development in the risk areas .
Again , there is no reason to panic . This is the time to review your safety plan and make sure you have batteries and flashlights in case your power should go out. Make sure you have a weather radio or a very reliable way to receive warning information.
Keep in mind ,during situations like this not everyone will experience dangerous severe weather. But it’s extremely important to prepare in the event that you do . We will have numerous updates through the day . Stay Weather aware