Springtime in the southeast means beautiful flowers, budding trees and lots of pollen!!! Unfortunately it also means the threat of severe thunderstorms and the upcoming week looks extremely busy in that department . There are two separate systems that we are watching this week. First will be an approaching system from the west on Monday and the second will be a system in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.
Mondays Threat-No doubt there will be a threat of severe storms tomorrow into tomorrow night for parts of the region. The early morning threat will impact places like Arkansas and Louisiana. As the day goes on the threat will shift east into Mississippi, western Tennessee and northern Alabama . Here is the SPC day 2 outlook
The wind profiles for tomorrow are not overly impressive. While the tornado risk is NOT zero , it remains fairly low at the moment . The main threat will come from strong winds and extremely large hail. Thanks to very cold air aloft and fairly steep lapse rates , large hail will be fairly common tomorrow afternoon
For tomorrow , just plan ahead and make sure you have a good source to recieve any watches and warnings tomorrow. The activity will slowly weaken late tomorrow night as it slides off to the east.
Thursday/Friday Threat– The Thursday into Friday Threat looks to be the biggest threat of the week as it stands right now. Wind profiles support a greater risk of tornadoes vs the early week threat. Here is the day 5 outlook from SPC
There will be plenty of warm juicy air in place to support severe storms . Here are the projected dew points on Thursday
Add to that warm 2m temperatures and fairly high cape values and the recipe is there for strong storms .
The late week threat has a greater chance of being a region wide event vs tomorrow’s threat which will likely only impact western and central parts of the southeast.
The message this afternoon is to stay Weather aware tomorrow and then again on Thursday . There is no reason to panic , it’s just that time of year where we need to be vigilant when it comes to severe weather threats. We will have many updates over the next 5 days so stay tuned and as always , stay Weather aware !!!