Ongoing severe weather across Texas , Louisiana, and Arkansas will gradually slide eastward tonight into Mississippi forming into squall line . But before it does that the severe threat this afternoon in those areas is extremely high. SPC went with a rare high risk for those areas this afternoon into tonight
Numerous showers and storms have formed in that area already and some are already severe
A squall line slides east tonight and will be approaching the Mississippi \ Alabama boarder by sunrise . The line will slide east during day with the greatest severe threat from i20 south . The line will move into western Georgia tomorrow afternoon before slowly weakening in eastern Georgia .
The biggest threats tomorrow will come from large hail and damaging winds however, the tornado threat is higher with this system vs the previous systems we’ve had over the last few weeks . SPC outlines an enhanced risk for tomorrow and now even includes a moderate risk where the biggest tornado threat will be .
Stay Weather aware tonight and tomorrow across the southeast. Have a safety plan in place , a NOAA weather radio or another reliable resource to receive warning information . We will have frequent updates over the next 24 hours
An extremely active severe weather day is shaping up for tomorrow across the southeast . In fact, the threat begins today across parts of Louisiana and Arkansas and slowly slides east tomorrow during the day then impacts the eastern areas of the southeast during the early morning hours on Friday .Here is the latest SPC day 2 outlook
All modes of severe weather will be possible including tornadoes , large hail and damaging winds . The highest tornado risk will be over northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. Thanks to fairly steep lapse rates and cold air aloft large hail will yet again be common with the storms
One thing we will be watching early tomorrow morning is a possible complex of thunderstorms along the gulf coast which could act to limit moisture return across northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. IF that complex does cut the return flow off, the severe threat would be limited somewhat . If it’s not there or further off the coast the severe threat will be higher as good moisture return would help fuel the storms. I circled the possible complex on the image below
Again, tomorrow looks like a very busy day across the southeast. Much will depend on the possible storms across the gulf coast . If moisture return is plentiful tornadoes , hail and damaging winds will all be possible. We will have frequent updates over the next 24 hours
One system down and one fast on its heels . Welcome to spring in the southeast . The previous two weeks have been extremely active across the region and that looks to continue . Our next storm system will be approaching the region Wednesday into Thursday . The greatest chance of severe storms tomorrow will be across Arkansas , and Louisiana
The biggest threats will come from damaging winds and very large hail. Like the previous two system there will be very cold air aloft that will help produce very large hail. The storms will slowly slide off to the east tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night .
Thursday the threat continues sliding off to the east . Here is SPCs latest day 3 outlook. Again we see an enhanced risk over western Tennessee and northern Mississippi
Similar to tomorrow , the biggest threats on Thursday will come from gusty winds and very large hail. There is also a a chance of tornadoes both days however that threat remains fairly low and like the past few days IF a tornado does form it will be rather short lived. One thing we will be watching for Thursday is to see if thunderstorms along the gulf coast choke off the best moisture return helping to limit the severe threat some .
Lots to watch for over the next few days and we will have frequent updates . As always, make sure you have a reliable source for receiving watches and warnings . Stay Weather aware!!
We have the threat of severe thunderstorms today across a large portion of the region. Thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of western Arkansas this morning . Those storms should start to die off later this morning and lay new boundaries that will be be focal points for new thunderstorms this afternoon. SPC has upgraded part of region to an enhanced risk for this afternoon
Again the main threats this afternoon will be from strong gusty winds and extremely large hail thanks to the very cold air aloft. There were multiple reports yesterday of hail the size of baseballs!!! While the tornado threat is fairly low, we can’t rule out the possibility of a brief tornado or two . Make sure you have a good way to recieve any watches and warnings that may be issued later today .
This are still on track for a round of severe weather on Saturday across the southeast. A line of showers and storms will track from west to east across Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia during the day on Saturday . The line will slowly weaken as we move into Saturday evening and Saturday night so rain chances look fairly low the further east you go towards South Carolina and North Carolina. While the tornado threat is fairly low , it’s not zero and we will have to watch closely and see if any Individual cells can get going ahead of the main line. The main threat will come from strong winds and large hail. Here is the SPC day 3 outlook
Aside from the severe threat , heavy rain will be possible as well. This is actually welcomed news as some locations in the southeast are still dealing with drought conditions. We will have more updates over the next few days
The Northeast Blizzard has come and gone . The snow is melting and the cold is starting to let up across the eastern half of the country. Now what?? Was that winters last stand?? That can be debated for weeks depending on location. Yes it can still get cold in late March and into April across the eastern half of the country . Truth is , March is normally a very active transition month and we are starting to see signs of that in the long range modeling .
Spring severe weather season is about to move into prime time over the coming few months. This means warmer temps, an active pattern and strong to severe storms. Models are actually hinting at an active pattern over the coming two weeks with troughs digging into central part of the country and low pressure systems cutting through the heart of the Midwest. We will need to watch these systems as they get closer .
One thing is for sure, the transition has started . Gone are the days of sustained cold ( not that we had too many this year). Gone are the threats of significant winter storms in the southeast . Incoming are warmer days , warmer nights and a few stormy periods here and there.