It’s been an active day across the southeast with severe storms from Alabama , Georgia , South Carolina and North Carolina. There were reported tornadoes in Georgia and South Carolina . Damage reports and flooding refports were widespread across the southeast today . Unfortunately, we have another threat taking shape for Wednesday and this one could be more dangerous than today’s threat was from a tornado perspective . SPC has outlined an area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night for a slight risk of severe weather
That outlined area is where a warm front will start lifting north from the northern gulf coast late tomorrow and tomorrow evening . This front will act as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms to form and move NE during the overnight hours Tuesday night. It’s those showers and storms that will bring an early morning severe threat to Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia and southeastern Tennessee Wednesday morning . Below is the 18z NAM depicting those storms
These storms will pack a punch and strong winds , , extremely large hail and a possible tornado or two . After the initial storms move through Wednesday morning the atmosphere will continue to destabilize. The 18z NAM is showing very high cape values. Not all models are this aggressive but they all have the same general idea of a volatile atmosphere . Below is the 18z NAM
The NAM is also showing significant tornado parameters fairly high as well
There are few things to watch as we get into Wednesday morning. Will the morning storms act as an atmospheric stabilizing feature ?? I doubt they will in this setup. How fast does the upper level trough approach the region ? Too fast and the front sweeps through without allowing for the afternoon development period. If it’s slower than currently showing on the models it would make for a long afternoon with supercell thunderstorms firing in a volitale atmosphere moving west to east impacting Alabama , Georgia and the Carolinas .
PLEASE make sure review your tornado safety plan over the next 24 hours. Have flashlights and batteries ready just to be safe and of course make sure you have a weather radio or a reliable way to receive warnings. No reason at all to panic, just stay Weather aware over the next 48 hours !!!