A fairly high severe weather threat today and tonight especially across Arkansas , Louisiana and Mississippi. That is where the best severe weather ingredients will be . Currently we have ongoing severe storms in western Arkansas
This is where the highest tornado risk will be today. Southern Arkansas looks to be the hotspot in regards to the greatest tornado risk . The storm prediction center upgraded southern Arkansas to a moderate risk and also expanded the slight risk a little further east extending into Alabama
The general thinking is a few supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will form in that general area before forming into a long squal line. The threat later tonight becomes more of a large hail and damaging wind threat for Mississippi and Alabama. The tornado threat isn’t zero in those areas but it’s much lower vs areas off to the west where the best cape values are. Instability remains a question mark for Mississippi and Alabama . Most guidance brings cape values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range for Mississippi and Alabama. If those values are underdone, the risk could go up a little .
Bottom line is , there is an increasing severe weather threat for the western parts of the southeast today and tonight . The threat slides east tonight and by tomorrow the severe threat drops off greatly