What was once a dead tropical system is now Harvey with a pulse!!! We have been watching over the last week as some models showed Harvey regaining life over the Bay of Campeche and sure enough that has been the end result . Harvey has been in a bit of a fight with the upper level low to its NW . However that low is finally staring to erode away which should help improve conditions for the development of Harvey . I circled the upper level low in the image below
As conditions improve Harvey will begin to become better organized and further strengthening is expected. Harvey currently has a large area of broad rotation. How soon the center of circulation can tighten up will be the determining factor as to how strong Harvey can actually become. Current projections suggest that a cat 1 or cat 2 is certainly possible with an outside chance of an even stronger system.
From here the big question that everyone wants to know is ” where does Harvey go from here. It’s a very complicated question that has many possible answers. One possible scenario is that Harvey makes landfall this weekend along the Texas coast and gets trapped in between a ridge to its NW and east forcing it on a more S/SW path ultimately raining itself out over northern Mexico. I highlighted the two ridges below
Another possible solution is that a trough digging down into the eastern US will pull Harvey to the NE into the southeastern US as shown by the Euro
Regardless of the ultimate track, Harvey has the potential to bring flooding rains to the coast of Texas . Some forecast models are suggesting over 20 inches of rain
Still a lot of questions remain over the coming days . How strong will Harvey become? Will he stall out or will he eventually move NE into the southeast ? For now ,we wait and watch the latest developments. We will have frequent updates over the coming days
Tropical storm Cindy is getting ready to make landfall along the upper Texas coast later on tonight. Some places along the gulf coast have already received over 8 inches of rain . The heavy rain is starting to move inland across central Mississippi and Alabama this morning. Look at the stream of moisture heading north out of the gulf
There is a high flood threat over parts of Mississippi and Alabama today . Rainfall amounts will range from 2-6 inches across the above mentioned areas.
Along with the flood threat comes the threat of brief spin up tornadoes across the gulf coast. This threat will move inland tomorrow across parts of the southeast .
We will continue watching Cindy and the heavy rain threat over the next few days. We will post updates as needed
Our tropical system in the gulf still hasn’t reached tropical storm category yet. To be honest , it’s irrelevant if it receives a name or not . The biggest threat from this system has been and will continue to be flooding. We currently have a stalled front that’s laying across the southeast. This front will actually help keep the deep moisture confined to south today along the gulf coast. I drew a blue line to represent the front
It won’t be until the front starts moving that the deep tropical moisture will be allowed to move to the north. The front should slowly start the northward movement early tomorrow. It appears the system will make landfall around the Texas/ Louisiana state line late tomorrow night or early Thursday morning .
Areas to the east of the center will experience very heavy rain. It’s not going to rain constantly but several rounds of heavy rain are possible. Many locations in the southeast have received copious amounts of rain over the last few weeks. With an additional 3-5 inches possible in the coming days flooding is a big concern
Along with the flooding threat there will be a small tornado threat across Mississippi,Alabama and western Georgia Thursday. A brief spin up tornado will be possible across the above mentioned areas . Inland winds will not be a huge issue across Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia , Tennessee and the Carolinas. However there could be some brief gusty winds associated with any thunderstorms.
The system will slowly move to the NE on Friday and Saturday and will become absorbed by the incoming front. This will keep rain chances fairly high through Sunday across a large part of the southeast.
The big message this morning is heavy rain is likely at times across the southeast over the next 3-5 days. We will have frequent updates along the way
By now the secrets out of the bag, there is a system deep in the Gulf of Mexico that has a chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next 96 hours. There are many things that need to be stressed . The first is , this is not likely to become a hurricane. Upper level winds racing from SW to NE across the central gulf providing high shear so the environment is not one that favors rappid development. Secondly , the ultimate track of the system isn’t the end all be all for rain across the southeast. There will be a large moisture plume to the east of the center that will move NE out of the gulf increasing rain chances pretty much region wide over the coming 4 days. So don’t pay too much attention to the track and the fancy track maps showing the possible outcomes.
Flooding is going to be a big concern as many areas across the southeast have received a lot of rain over the last few weeks. Inland winds should not be a big a issue outside of any possible thunderstorms related to the potential tropical system.
There are still many questions moving forward and we will have many updates in the coming days.
A fairly high severe weather threat today and tonight especially across Arkansas , Louisiana and Mississippi. That is where the best severe weather ingredients will be . Currently we have ongoing severe storms in western Arkansas
This is where the highest tornado risk will be today. Southern Arkansas looks to be the hotspot in regards to the greatest tornado risk . The storm prediction center upgraded southern Arkansas to a moderate risk and also expanded the slight risk a little further east extending into Alabama
The general thinking is a few supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will form in that general area before forming into a long squal line. The threat later tonight becomes more of a large hail and damaging wind threat for Mississippi and Alabama. The tornado threat isn’t zero in those areas but it’s much lower vs areas off to the west where the best cape values are. Instability remains a question mark for Mississippi and Alabama . Most guidance brings cape values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range for Mississippi and Alabama. If those values are underdone, the risk could go up a little .
Bottom line is , there is an increasing severe weather threat for the western parts of the southeast today and tonight . The threat slides east tonight and by tomorrow the severe threat drops off greatly
It’s been a warm week across the southeast this week and that looks to continue through tomorrow . Temperatures in many locations are running 5-10 degrees above normal . But, brief Relief is on the way.
An approaching front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms to western parts of the southeast tonight and tomorrow . While the severe weather threat isn’t zero it remains fairly low with the greatest risks coming over central Mississippi in the form of large hail and damaging winds . As the system slides to the east on Saturday night it will slow down and attempt to cutoff from the main flow . This will bring enhanced rain chances to the Carolinas . This is very welcomed news as many places remain well below the average rain totals for this time of year. The system slides east late Sunday into Monday morning bringing much cooler air to the southeast. Here is the 00z Euro modeled rainfall output for the Carolinas. We believe this is overdone but it gives you an idea as to where the heaviest rain could be this weekend. Image from wxbell.com
After this system passes and the brief cool down on Monday we warm up again later next week and will be watching yet another system approaching from the west as we head into next weekend
Ongoing severe weather across Texas , Louisiana, and Arkansas will gradually slide eastward tonight into Mississippi forming into squall line . But before it does that the severe threat this afternoon in those areas is extremely high. SPC went with a rare high risk for those areas this afternoon into tonight
Numerous showers and storms have formed in that area already and some are already severe
A squall line slides east tonight and will be approaching the Mississippi \ Alabama boarder by sunrise . The line will slide east during day with the greatest severe threat from i20 south . The line will move into western Georgia tomorrow afternoon before slowly weakening in eastern Georgia .
The biggest threats tomorrow will come from large hail and damaging winds however, the tornado threat is higher with this system vs the previous systems we’ve had over the last few weeks . SPC outlines an enhanced risk for tomorrow and now even includes a moderate risk where the biggest tornado threat will be .
Stay Weather aware tonight and tomorrow across the southeast. Have a safety plan in place , a NOAA weather radio or another reliable resource to receive warning information . We will have frequent updates over the next 24 hours
It seems like we have been dealing with the threat of severe weather for the last three weeks . Must be spring time in the southeast . The coming week offers no break and in fact, the two upcoming systems could be the strongest we have seen over the last month. Our first system gets going tomorrow over Texas and Louisiana where a big severe weather outbreak is expected .
The threat slides east on Monday bringing a severe weather threat to Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia and into the Carolinas overnight Monday into Tuesday. The main threat at this point will be from strong straight line winds and large hail. The tornado threat looks rather low right now say from the i20 corridor northward . However there will be a greater tornado threat over southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle. Here is the day two outlook
A large squall line will move through the above mentioned areas bringing the severe threats along with the potential for some very heavy rain. Some locations could recieve between 1-2 inches. Here is the 3k NAM
If that’s not enough, we are looking at yet another possible threat Wednesday into Thursday and that threat looks to be the most significant of the season so far . The obvious strong wind and hail threats apply to this threat but , there appears to be a much greater tornado threat with this system . Cape values are very high and the low-level winds appear to be more favorable for supporting tornadoes . Still plenty of time to watch this period, just know this has the potential to be a substantial outbreak. Here are the latest cape values from the 12z euro
So a busy week is shaping up weather wise. Please make sure you have a reliable source for receiving warning information. I heard someone at the store this past week talking about how they don’t go to their safe place until they hear the outdoor siren. That is a HORRIBLE idea . The outdoor siren system was created back during the Cold War to alert people of any incoming attacks it was NOT CREATED FOR TORNADO WARNINGS. Often times the sirens sound minutes after warnings are issued . Minutes can mean the difference between life and death. Please make sure to have a weather radio or another reliable source this week. We will have numerous updates in the coming days
After a round of rain and storms yesterday , the weather is looking fantastic for the upcoming weekend. Cooler temperatures and bright sunny skies will dominate over the next 48 hours. It seems like we have been dealing with a weather system every 2-3 days lately and that trend will continue but AFTER a beautiful weekend
We will have to deal with another system to start the upcoming work week that looks to bring heavy rain and possibly a severe weather threat . But first thing is first , get out over the next few days and enjoy this amazing weekend
We are still watching for the possibility of a few severe storms later this afternoon . In fact, there are a couple of storms over south Alabama that went severe for a brief period already. The cluster of showers and storms that moved through Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning is now across southern Alabama . They are helping to limit the severe threat later this evening but keeping the atmosphere in check somewhat .
SPC maintained a slight risk across a large area of the southeast in their latest update
We will start looking back towards the Mississippi River as the cold front is now approaching. Showers and storms are staring to form and those are the storms we will be watching later this evening into tonight.