What was once a dead tropical system is now Harvey with a pulse!!! We have been watching over the last week as some models showed Harvey regaining life over the Bay of Campeche and sure enough that has been the end result . Harvey has been in a bit of a fight with the upper level low to its NW . However that low is finally staring to erode away which should help improve conditions for the development of Harvey . I circled the upper level low in the image below
As conditions improve Harvey will begin to become better organized and further strengthening is expected. Harvey currently has a large area of broad rotation. How soon the center of circulation can tighten up will be the determining factor as to how strong Harvey can actually become. Current projections suggest that a cat 1 or cat 2 is certainly possible with an outside chance of an even stronger system.
From here the big question that everyone wants to know is ” where does Harvey go from here. It’s a very complicated question that has many possible answers. One possible scenario is that Harvey makes landfall this weekend along the Texas coast and gets trapped in between a ridge to its NW and east forcing it on a more S/SW path ultimately raining itself out over northern Mexico. I highlighted the two ridges below
Another possible solution is that a trough digging down into the eastern US will pull Harvey to the NE into the southeastern US as shown by the Euro
Regardless of the ultimate track, Harvey has the potential to bring flooding rains to the coast of Texas . Some forecast models are suggesting over 20 inches of rain
Still a lot of questions remain over the coming days . How strong will Harvey become? Will he stall out or will he eventually move NE into the southeast ? For now ,we wait and watch the latest developments. We will have frequent updates over the coming days
Tropical storm Cindy is getting ready to make landfall along the upper Texas coast later on tonight. Some places along the gulf coast have already received over 8 inches of rain . The heavy rain is starting to move inland across central Mississippi and Alabama this morning. Look at the stream of moisture heading north out of the gulf
There is a high flood threat over parts of Mississippi and Alabama today . Rainfall amounts will range from 2-6 inches across the above mentioned areas.
Along with the flood threat comes the threat of brief spin up tornadoes across the gulf coast. This threat will move inland tomorrow across parts of the southeast .
We will continue watching Cindy and the heavy rain threat over the next few days. We will post updates as needed
Our tropical system in the gulf still hasn’t reached tropical storm category yet. To be honest , it’s irrelevant if it receives a name or not . The biggest threat from this system has been and will continue to be flooding. We currently have a stalled front that’s laying across the southeast. This front will actually help keep the deep moisture confined to south today along the gulf coast. I drew a blue line to represent the front
It won’t be until the front starts moving that the deep tropical moisture will be allowed to move to the north. The front should slowly start the northward movement early tomorrow. It appears the system will make landfall around the Texas/ Louisiana state line late tomorrow night or early Thursday morning .
Areas to the east of the center will experience very heavy rain. It’s not going to rain constantly but several rounds of heavy rain are possible. Many locations in the southeast have received copious amounts of rain over the last few weeks. With an additional 3-5 inches possible in the coming days flooding is a big concern
Along with the flooding threat there will be a small tornado threat across Mississippi,Alabama and western Georgia Thursday. A brief spin up tornado will be possible across the above mentioned areas . Inland winds will not be a huge issue across Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia , Tennessee and the Carolinas. However there could be some brief gusty winds associated with any thunderstorms.
The system will slowly move to the NE on Friday and Saturday and will become absorbed by the incoming front. This will keep rain chances fairly high through Sunday across a large part of the southeast.
The big message this morning is heavy rain is likely at times across the southeast over the next 3-5 days. We will have frequent updates along the way
By now the secrets out of the bag, there is a system deep in the Gulf of Mexico that has a chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next 96 hours. There are many things that need to be stressed . The first is , this is not likely to become a hurricane. Upper level winds racing from SW to NE across the central gulf providing high shear so the environment is not one that favors rappid development. Secondly , the ultimate track of the system isn’t the end all be all for rain across the southeast. There will be a large moisture plume to the east of the center that will move NE out of the gulf increasing rain chances pretty much region wide over the coming 4 days. So don’t pay too much attention to the track and the fancy track maps showing the possible outcomes.
Flooding is going to be a big concern as many areas across the southeast have received a lot of rain over the last few weeks. Inland winds should not be a big a issue outside of any possible thunderstorms related to the potential tropical system.
There are still many questions moving forward and we will have many updates in the coming days.