As we mentioned yesterday , tomorrow is shaping up to be a very significant severe weather day across the southeast . It’s a day where you will want to pay attention to the weather and have a severe weather safety plan in place . This is not a time to panic, its a time to prepare.
The storm prediction center has ramped up its outlook to now include a large enhanced area along with a large moderate area. Depending on mesoscale features which won’t be figured out tomorrow I would not be surprised to see them post a rare high risk for portions of the southeast sometime tomorrow . Below is the day 2 outlook which includes a 30 percent hatched area and a 45 percent hatched area
A 45 percent hatch means that you have a 45 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your home. It’s a significant risk and one that should be taken seriously.
A warm front will be racing NE from the gulf coast early tomorrow morning bringing showers and thunderstorms with it . These storms , the ” first round” will pack a punch with large hail and damaging straight line winds. There will be a tornado threat with the morning storms as well but the greatest threat will come tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough digs into the region.
The atmosphere tomorrow afternoon is going to be very volatile. Cape values could approach 4,000 j/kg , add to that wind profiles that support supercell thunderstorms and you have all the ingredients for a dangerous weather day tomorrow into tomorrow night across Alabama ,Georgia and into the Carolinas. The second round of storms will come along and ahead of the approaching cold front from the west . Timing of this front will have big implications. A faster moving front would help to slightly reduce the severe threat across Alabama and western Georgia by not giving the storms a lot of time to develop . A slower moving front would allow for greater thunderstorm development in the risk areas .
Again , there is no reason to panic . This is the time to review your safety plan and make sure you have batteries and flashlights in case your power should go out. Make sure you have a weather radio or a very reliable way to receive warning information.
Keep in mind ,during situations like this not everyone will experience dangerous severe weather. But it’s extremely important to prepare in the event that you do . We will have numerous updates through the day . Stay Weather aware
It’s been an active day across the southeast with severe storms from Alabama , Georgia , South Carolina and North Carolina. There were reported tornadoes in Georgia and South Carolina . Damage reports and flooding refports were widespread across the southeast today . Unfortunately, we have another threat taking shape for Wednesday and this one could be more dangerous than today’s threat was from a tornado perspective . SPC has outlined an area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night for a slight risk of severe weather
That outlined area is where a warm front will start lifting north from the northern gulf coast late tomorrow and tomorrow evening . This front will act as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms to form and move NE during the overnight hours Tuesday night. It’s those showers and storms that will bring an early morning severe threat to Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia and southeastern Tennessee Wednesday morning . Below is the 18z NAM depicting those storms
These storms will pack a punch and strong winds , , extremely large hail and a possible tornado or two . After the initial storms move through Wednesday morning the atmosphere will continue to destabilize. The 18z NAM is showing very high cape values. Not all models are this aggressive but they all have the same general idea of a volatile atmosphere . Below is the 18z NAM
The NAM is also showing significant tornado parameters fairly high as well
There are few things to watch as we get into Wednesday morning. Will the morning storms act as an atmospheric stabilizing feature ?? I doubt they will in this setup. How fast does the upper level trough approach the region ? Too fast and the front sweeps through without allowing for the afternoon development period. If it’s slower than currently showing on the models it would make for a long afternoon with supercell thunderstorms firing in a volitale atmosphere moving west to east impacting Alabama , Georgia and the Carolinas .
PLEASE make sure review your tornado safety plan over the next 24 hours. Have flashlights and batteries ready just to be safe and of course make sure you have a weather radio or a reliable way to receive warnings. No reason at all to panic, just stay Weather aware over the next 48 hours !!!
Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across Tennessee and Georgia currently . The large complex is moving off to the southeast bringing strong winds , heavy rain and large hail. There have been numerous hail reports this afternoon .
The storms will continue moving off to the SE over the next few hours . A severe thunderstorm watch is up until 10 pm central time
The storms will gradually weaken late tonight however that is not to downplay the current threat of strong winds and large hail. Stay weather alert !
A strengthening low pressure is bringing extremely heavy snowfall to the northeast this morning. Over 8,000 flight cancellations currently along with travel bans in many states . In Washington D.C. , precip has been mixing with sleet and freezing rain and snow totals in that area are far less than areas just to the NW.
Heavy snow has been the dominate precip type for Philadelphia and New York City as close to a foot of snow is expected in those areas . However, sleet is starting to mix in around Philadelphia so totals there might be a hair less
The heaviest snow will fall in western Connecticut and western Massachusetts where anywhere from 20-30 inches could fall.
High winds will also have a big impact on the area as gusts greater than 50 mph will be possible. The storm will gradually lift NE during the day today bringing the snow to an end late tonight .
A massive winter storm is starting to take shape tonight across the Mid Atlantic and will move into the Northeast tomorrow morning and throughout the day tomorrow . Below you can already see snow moving in the D.C. area. Heavy snow will be possible from just NW of Washington D.C. Through southeast Pennsylvania, New York City and into the Boston area. D.C. metro is looking at around 2-5 inches of snow while just to the NW there could be a foot plus. There will be a large area of one to two feet from SE Pennsylvania up to Boston. Aside from the heavy snow threat high winds will also be an issue as gusts could easily exceed 50 mph causing widespread power outages .If you are traveling to the Northeast tomorrow you may want to wait an extra day if possible as traffic and airports across the region will come to a standstill. Behind the system cold air will invade the eastern half of the nation bringing the possibility of a damaging freeze to the Southeast
The southeast ridge can be a semi permanent fixture within the pattern across the southeastern part of the US. While the picture below gives you one example of the orientation of the ridge it can be shifted more off short of the SE coastline or farther west toward Texas. Regardless of where its located it generally spells above normal temperatures and a lack of precipitation. The image below shows you heights at 500mb and what they would typically look like during a SE ridge event.
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