Afternoon Update

Big storms are ongoing in southern Georgia and Western South Carolina . Those areas are under a particularly dangerous situation tornado watch . We now have another tornado watch just issued for parts of Kentucky , Tennessee and Alabama .

A dry line is approaching the Alabama / Mississippi boarder and with high cape values , high dew points and sunshine storms should start to fire along the dry line . The storms will be scattered and not everyone will see a storm this afternoon. But where they do develop they will pack a punch and be capable of producing large hail and tornadoes . The treat ends west to east throughout the afternoon so for western and central Alabama it’s over by 5 . For western Alabama and Eastern Georgia between 7-9 . Stay Weather aware this afternoon in those locations

Quick Update

Morning thunderstorms are moving setting the stage for an active afternoon across the southeast . Here is the new SPC day 1 update

The atmosphere is destabilizing very quickly across Alabama and Georgia . Cape values are on the rise and dew points are as well.

The one thing really lacking for Alabama is shear . It will be interesting to see how fast the shear catches up to the best cape values . It could be that western Alabama has a bigger hail threat bs tornado threat. Looks like the best combination of parameters will be over east Alabama and West Georgia.  Below is the 3k NAM showing storms forming later today across Alabama and exploding into Georgia

 

Stay alert we we will have updates throughout the day. Follow us on facebook and twitter for frequent updates

 

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Severe Weather Update

An active and dangerous weather day is less than 24 hours away for a large portion of the southeast including Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia and the Carolinas. There are still many questions regarding tomorrow’s threat many of which cannot be answered until tomorrow morning at the earliest  . Early today SPC released its updated day 2 outlook and it expanded the enhanced risks and the moderate risks. There are some high probabilities within this outlook as well

The moderate risk is very expansive and the Storm Prediction Center even hinted that they might have to upgrade areas further north towards Tennessee. Based on everything we’ve looked at this afternoon it appears they will most likely pull the moderate risk even further to the west and northwest sometime tonight  . We also believe that tomorrow there will no doubt be a high risk issued especially around from SE Alabama to SW Georgia area.

Models today kept inching higher severe parameters further west to include parts of western Alabama . They are also starting to show development a little further west towards the Mississippi / Alabama border . Below is the 3k 18z NAM showing individual cells forming along the dry line

If early development occurs, the risk for a  larger threat area increases as well. If it’s later development , the storms might not get cranking until central or eastern Alabama. So as I said before there are still many questions.

We will have a round of showers and storms early tomorrow morning between 4-8 am thanks to the warm front lifting north from the gulf coast . There is the threat some of these could be severe as well with large hail and damaging winds. But it’s the afternoon storms that we are most worried about.  Once the warm front lifts north the atmosphere will become a powder keg . Here is the projected cape values tomorrow afternoon

Add to that extremely high dew points and high helicity values and the atmosphere would be primed for rotating storms capable of producing large tornadoes.

This is a very serious weather situation and you should prepare for it no later than tonight. Make sure you review your Severe Weather safety plan. Make sure you have a NOAA weather radio or a reliable way to recieve warning information . Make sure you have flashlights and batteries as well.

There is no reason to panic, we deal with severe weather outbreaks every year in the Deep South. But please know your course of action if you should be placed under a severe thunderstorm warning or a tornado warning . Not everyone will be impacted by severe storms tomorrow . But the risk is high and it’s better to be safe than sorry . Look for more updates here on the blog or you can follow the latest at Southernwx.com , Southernwx on facebook and @southern_wx on Twitter .

 

Dangerous Weather Day Tomorrow

As we mentioned yesterday , tomorrow is shaping up to be a very significant severe weather day across the southeast . It’s a day where you will want to pay attention to the weather and have a severe weather safety plan in place . This is not a time to panic, its a time to prepare.

The storm prediction center has ramped up its outlook to now include a large enhanced area along with a large moderate area. Depending on mesoscale features which won’t be figured out tomorrow I would not be surprised to see them post a rare high risk for portions of the southeast sometime tomorrow . Below is the day 2 outlook which includes a 30 percent hatched area and a 45 percent hatched area

A 45 percent hatch means that you have a 45 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your home. It’s a significant risk and one that should be taken seriously.

A warm front will be racing NE from the gulf coast early tomorrow morning bringing showers and thunderstorms with it . These storms , the ” first round” will pack a punch with large hail and damaging straight line winds. There will be a tornado threat with the morning storms as well but the greatest threat will come tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough digs into the region.

The atmosphere tomorrow afternoon is going to be very volatile. Cape values could approach 4,000 j/kg , add to that wind profiles that support supercell thunderstorms and you have all the ingredients for a dangerous weather day tomorrow into tomorrow night across Alabama ,Georgia and into the Carolinas. The second round of storms will come along and ahead of the approaching cold front from the west . Timing of this front will have big implications. A faster moving front would help to slightly reduce the severe threat across Alabama and western Georgia by not giving the storms a lot of time to develop . A slower moving front would allow for greater thunderstorm development in the risk areas .

Again , there is no reason to panic . This is the time to review your safety plan and make sure you have batteries and flashlights in case your power should go out. Make sure you have a weather radio or a very reliable way to receive warning information.

Keep in mind ,during situations like this not everyone will experience dangerous severe weather. But it’s extremely important to prepare in the event that you do . We will have numerous updates through the day . Stay Weather aware

 

Big Severe Weather Threat Wednesday

It’s been an active day across the southeast with severe storms from Alabama , Georgia , South Carolina and North Carolina. There were reported tornadoes in Georgia and South Carolina . Damage reports and flooding refports were widespread across the southeast today . Unfortunately, we have another threat taking shape for Wednesday and this one could be more dangerous than today’s threat was from a tornado perspective . SPC has outlined an area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night for a slight risk of severe weather

That outlined area is where a warm front will start lifting north from the northern gulf coast late tomorrow and tomorrow evening . This front will act as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms to form and move NE during the overnight hours Tuesday night. It’s those showers and storms that will bring an early morning severe threat to Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia and southeastern Tennessee Wednesday morning . Below is the 18z NAM depicting those storms

These storms will pack a punch and strong winds , , extremely large hail and a possible tornado or two . After the initial storms move through Wednesday morning the atmosphere will continue to destabilize. The 18z NAM is showing very high cape values. Not all models are this aggressive but they all have the same general idea of a volatile atmosphere . Below is the 18z NAM

The NAM is also showing significant tornado parameters fairly high as well

There are few things to watch as we get into Wednesday morning. Will the morning storms act  as an atmospheric stabilizing feature ?? I doubt they will in this setup. How fast does the upper level trough approach the region ? Too fast and the front sweeps through without allowing for the afternoon development period. If it’s slower than currently showing on the models it would make for a long afternoon with supercell thunderstorms firing in a volitale atmosphere moving west to east impacting Alabama , Georgia and the Carolinas .

PLEASE make sure review your tornado safety plan over the next 24 hours. Have flashlights and batteries ready just to be safe and of course make sure you have a weather radio or a reliable way to receive warnings. No reason at all to panic, just stay Weather aware over the next 48 hours !!!

 

Severe Weather April 2nd-3rd

Ongoing severe weather across Texas , Louisiana, and Arkansas will gradually slide eastward tonight into Mississippi forming into squall line . But before it does that the severe threat this afternoon in those areas is extremely high. SPC went with a rare high risk for those areas this afternoon into tonight

Numerous showers and storms have formed in that area already and some are already severe

A squall line slides east tonight and will be approaching the Mississippi \ Alabama boarder by sunrise . The line will slide east during day with the greatest severe threat from i20 south . The line will move into western Georgia tomorrow afternoon before slowly weakening in eastern Georgia .

The biggest threats tomorrow will come from large hail and damaging winds however, the tornado threat is higher with this system vs the previous systems we’ve had over the last few weeks . SPC outlines an enhanced risk for tomorrow and now even includes a moderate risk where the biggest tornado threat will be .

Stay Weather aware tonight and tomorrow across the southeast. Have a safety plan in place , a NOAA weather radio or another reliable resource to receive warning information . We will have frequent updates over the next 24 hours

Multiple Severe Threats April 3rd-7th

It seems like we have been dealing with the threat of severe weather for the last three weeks . Must be spring time in the southeast . The coming week offers no break and in fact, the two upcoming systems could be the strongest we have seen over the last month. Our first system gets going tomorrow over Texas and Louisiana where a big severe weather outbreak is expected .

The threat slides east on Monday bringing a severe weather threat to Mississippi, Alabama , Georgia and into the Carolinas overnight Monday into Tuesday. The main threat at this point will be from strong straight line winds and large hail. The tornado threat looks rather low right now say from the i20 corridor northward . However there will be a greater tornado threat over southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle. Here is the day two outlook

A large squall line will move through the above mentioned areas bringing the severe threats along with the potential for some very heavy rain. Some locations could recieve between 1-2 inches. Here is the 3k NAM

If that’s not enough, we are looking at yet another possible threat Wednesday into Thursday and that threat looks to be the most significant of the season so far . The obvious strong wind and hail threats apply to this threat but , there appears to be a much greater tornado threat with this system . Cape values are very high and the low-level winds appear to be more favorable for supporting tornadoes . Still plenty of time to watch this period, just know this has the potential to be a substantial outbreak. Here are the latest cape values from the 12z euro

So a busy week is shaping up weather wise. Please make sure you have a reliable source for receiving warning information. I heard someone at the store this past week talking about how they don’t go to their safe place until they hear the outdoor siren. That is a HORRIBLE idea . The outdoor siren system was created back during the Cold War to alert people of any incoming attacks it was NOT CREATED FOR TORNADO WARNINGS. Often times the sirens sound minutes after warnings are issued . Minutes can mean the difference between life and death. Please make sure to have a weather radio or another reliable source this week. We will have numerous updates in the coming days

 

Beautiful Weekend

After a round of rain and storms yesterday , the weather is looking fantastic for the upcoming weekend. Cooler temperatures and bright sunny skies will dominate over the next 48 hours. It seems like we have been dealing with a weather system every 2-3 days lately and that trend will continue but AFTER a beautiful weekend

We will have to deal with another system to start the upcoming work week that looks to bring heavy rain and possibly a severe weather threat . But first thing is first , get out over the next few days and enjoy this amazing weekend

Afternoon Update

We are still watching for the possibility of a few severe storms later this afternoon . In fact, there are a couple of storms over south Alabama that went severe for a brief period already. The cluster of showers and storms that moved through Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning is now across southern Alabama . They are helping to limit the severe threat later this evening but keeping the atmosphere in check somewhat .

SPC maintained a slight risk across a large area of the southeast in their latest update

We will start looking back towards the Mississippi River as the cold front is now approaching. Showers and storms are staring to form and those are the storms we will be watching later this evening into tonight.

 

 

 

 

11:20am Update

The severe weather threat has diminished some over the last few hours thanks to storms along the gulf coast that are blocking the moisture return and thanks to some drier air that’s been mixing down lowering dew points . While the threat has diminished some, do not let your guard down . Stay Weather aware throughout the day and we will have plenty of updates . The new SPC day 1 outlook