What was once a dead tropical system is now Harvey with a pulse!!! We have been watching over the last week as some models showed Harvey regaining life over the Bay of Campeche and sure enough that has been the end result . Harvey has been in a bit of a fight with the upper level low to its NW . However that low is finally staring to erode away which should help improve conditions for the development of Harvey . I circled the upper level low in the image below
As conditions improve Harvey will begin to become better organized and further strengthening is expected. Harvey currently has a large area of broad rotation. How soon the center of circulation can tighten up will be the determining factor as to how strong Harvey can actually become. Current projections suggest that a cat 1 or cat 2 is certainly possible with an outside chance of an even stronger system.
From here the big question that everyone wants to know is ” where does Harvey go from here. It’s a very complicated question that has many possible answers. One possible scenario is that Harvey makes landfall this weekend along the Texas coast and gets trapped in between a ridge to its NW and east forcing it on a more S/SW path ultimately raining itself out over northern Mexico. I highlighted the two ridges below
Another possible solution is that a trough digging down into the eastern US will pull Harvey to the NE into the southeastern US as shown by the Euro
Regardless of the ultimate track, Harvey has the potential to bring flooding rains to the coast of Texas . Some forecast models are suggesting over 20 inches of rain
Still a lot of questions remain over the coming days . How strong will Harvey become? Will he stall out or will he eventually move NE into the southeast ? For now ,we wait and watch the latest developments. We will have frequent updates over the coming days